Duan Hongbo, Professor, School of Economics & Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS)

Research Areas

Resource and environmental economics; Integrated assessment modeling; Big carbon data analysis


Department of Economics, University of Kansas (KU) (2018.1 to 2019.1), Visiting Scholar

Center for Energy & Environmental Research (CEEP), Institutes of Science and Development (2013.7 to present), Senior research fellow

School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS) (2017.11 to present), Associate Professor

School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS) (2016.7 -2017.11), Assistant Professor

School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), (2013.7 -2016.7), Affiliated Post Doctorate


 "Valuing the impact of climate change on China’s economic growth", with Deyu Yuan, Zongwu Cai and Shouyang Wang,  Economic Analysis and  Policy, 2022, 74: 155-174.

"Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership burdens global carbon emission mitigation", with Kailan Tian, Yu Zhang, Yuze Li, Xi Ming, Shangrong Jiang, Cuihong Yang and Shouyang Wang, Nature Communications, 2022, 13: 408. doi.10.1038/s41467-022-28004-5.

“Quantifying the implied risk for newly-built coal plant to become stranded asset by carbon pricing”, with Jianlei Mo and Lianbiao Cui, Energy Economics, 2020, 99: 105286.

“Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5 ºC warming limit”, with Sheng Zhou, Kejun Jiang, Christoph Bertram, Mathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Deltef P. van Vuuren, Shouyang Wang, Shinichiro Fujimori, Xi Ming, Alban Kitous, Massimo Tavoni, Gokul Iyer, James Edmonds, Science, 2021, 372(6540): 378-385. 10.1126/science.aba8767.

“Ecological compensation in air pollution governance: China’s efforts, challenges, and potential solutions”, with Lianbiao Cui, Jianlei Mo and Malin Song, International Journal of Financial Analysis, 2021, 74: 101701.

“Evenness is important in assessing progress towards sustainable development goals”, with Yali Liu, Jianqing Du and Yanfen Wang et al., National Science Review, 2020, 0: 1-10.

“How will globalization contribute to reduce Energy Consumption?”, with Zhilin Huang and Hong Zhang, Energy, 2020, 213: 118825.

“Environmental regulation policies, local government enforcement and pollution-intensive industries transfer in China”, with Guoxing Zhang and Wei Liu, Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2020, 148: 106748.

“How does new entrant’s pre-entry technological background impact their cross-industry innovation? A retrospective study of the mobile phone vendors”, with Gupeng Zhang and Xiao Wang, Technovation, 2020, 100: 102176. 

“Obtaining certainty vs. creating uncertainty: How does the market react firms’ patent filing strategy embedded in the examination request lag?”, with Gupeng Zhang, Libing Xiong and Dujuan Huang, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2020, 160: 120324.

“How do international trade networks impact multinational technology diffusion: Lessons from wind industry?” with Gupeng Zhang, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2020, 276: 123245.

“Obscure but important: Examining the indirect effects of alliance networks in exploratory and exploitative innovation paradigms”, with Gupeng Zhang, Scientometrics, 2020, 124(3): 1745-1764.

“Synergizing China’s Energy and Carbon Mitigation Goals: General Equilibrium Modeling and Policy Options”, with Yongna Yuan and Tsvetan G. Tevetanov, Energy Economics, 2020, 87: 104787.

“Coronavirus pandemic: Opportunities and challenges for energy and low-carbon transition”, with Lianbiao Cui, Lei Zhu and Xiaobing Zhang, IAEE Energy Forum, 2020, SI: 125-127.

“Constructing energy-consuming right trading system for China’s manufacturing industry”, with Mian Yang, Yaru Hou and Chao Fang, Energy Policy, 2020, 144: 111602.

“The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China’s economy”, with Qin Bao, Kailan Tian, Shouyang Wang, Zongwu Cai and Cuihong Yang. Working Papers Series in Theoretical and Applied Economics, University of Kansas.

“Artificial selection vs. natural selection: Which causes the Matthew effect of science funding allocation in China”, with Gupeng Zhang, Libin Xiong, Xiao Wang and Jianing Dong, Science & Public Policy, 2020,

“An interconnected panorama of a future cross-regional power grid: A complex network approach”, with Nie Yan, Guoxing Zhang, Hongbo Duan, Resources Policy, 2020, 67: 101692.

“Analysis on the Firms’ Innovation Quality based on the Patent Value: A Comparison between Public and Private Firms in China”, with Dujuan Huang, Hongbo Duan, Gupeng Zhang. Sustainability, 2020, 12: 3107.

“Estimating the threshold interactions between income inequality and carbon emissions”, with Zhilin Huang, Journal of Environmental Management, 2020, 263: 110393.

“Coronavirus: Limit short-term economic damage”, with Shouyang Wang and Cuihong Yang, Nature, 2020,578(7796): 515-515.

“Modeling deep decarbonization-Robust energy policy and climate action”, with Joeri Rogelj, Jason Veysey and Shouyang Wang, Applied Energy, 2020, 262: 114517.

“How does the collaboration with dominant R&D performers impact new R&D employees’ innovation performance in different cultural contexts? A comparative study of American and Chinese large firms”, with Gupeng Zhang and Xiao Wang, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2019, 148: 119728.

“Nonlinear globalization threshold effect of energy intensity convergence in Belt and Road Countries”, with Zhilin Huang and Hong Zhang, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 230: 117750.

“The global warming-rise target from 2C to 1.5C: The challenge for China”, with Shouyang Wang. Management World, 2019, 10: 50-63.

“Multi-renewable management: Interactions between wind and solar within uncertain technological ecological system”, with Yongqiang Du, Bingjie Song, Tsvetan G. Tsvetanov and Yingying Wu. Energy Conversion and Management, 2019, 187: 232-247.

“Integrated benefit-cost analysis of China’s optimal adaptation and targeted mitigation”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan, Ecological Economics, 160: 76-86.

“Review on robust climate economic research: Multi-model comparison analysis”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan, Environmental Research Letters, 2019, 14(3): 033001.

“Innovation, endogenous growth and climate change: Comments on works of the 2018 Nobel Prize winners in economic sciences”, with Zongwu Cai, Management Review, 2018, 30(10): 3-13.

“Comparative technological advances between China and developed areas in respect of energy production: Quantitative and qualitative measurements based on patents”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Qianlong Zhang, Energy, 2018, 162: 1223-1233.

“Ownership unbundling of natural gas transmission networks in China”, with Jichang Dong, Siying Sha, Xiuting Li, Jian Xu and Wei Dai. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 195: 145-153.

“Mitigation & adaptation: Cost-benefit analysis on copping with China’s climate change risks”, with Shouyang Wang, Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2018, 33(3): 284-290.

“Analysis on the determinates and peaking paths of CO2 emissions in China’s high energy-consuming industry”, with Mian Yang and Xin Lu, 2018, System Engineering: Theory & Practice, 2018, 38(10: 2501-2511.

“Potential impacts of China’s climate policies on energy security”, with Shouyang Wang, Environmental Impacts Assessment Review, 2018, 71: 94-101.

“Cross-national interaction and learning: A two-dimensional technological diffusion framework”, with Shouyang Wang, Ying Fan, Gupeng Zhang, Journal of Business Research, 2018, 89: 57-66.

“Achieving China’s energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties”, with Jianlei Mo, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan, Energy Economics, 2018, 70: 45-60.

“The impacts of climate policies on energy security in carbon-restrained China”, with Shouyang Wang, IAEE Energy Forum, 2017, 4: 42-43.

“Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emissions control costs”, with Gupeng Zhang, Shouyang Wang and Ying Fan. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2018, 23(3): 387-403. doi: 10.1007/s11027-017-9739-y. 

“The timing of China’s carbon peaking under an uncertain future”, with Jianlei Mo, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang,IAEE Energy Forum, 2017, 1: 49-51.

“Network stability, connectivity and Innovation output”, with Gupeng Zhang and Jianghua Zhou, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017, 114: 339-349. 

“Role of endogenous energy efficiency improvement in global climate change mitigation”, with Gupeng Zhang, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang, Energy Efficiency, 2017, 10(2): 459-473.

“Impacts of transaction costs on cost-saving effect of carbon trading market in China”, with Lianbiao Cui and Jinhua Xu, Management Review, 2017, 29(6): 23-31.

“Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China”, Environmental Research, 2017, 152: 342-350. 

“Regional opportunities for China to go low-carbon: Results from the REEC Model”, with Lei Zhu, Gürkan Kumbaroglu and Ying Fan, The Energy Journal, 2016, 37: 223-252. 

“Investigating Determinants of Inter-Regional Technology Transfer in China: A Network Analysis with Provincial Patent Data”, with Gupeng Zhang and Jianghua Zhou. Review of Managerial Science, 2016, 10(2): 345-362. 

“How will diffusion of PV solar contribute to China’s emission-peaking and climate response?”, with Gupeng Zhang, Lei Zhu, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016, 53: 1076-1085. 

“China’s carbon reduction structure: An analysis based on endogenous energy efficiency improvement”, with Gupeng Zhang, Ying Fan and Shouyang Wang, Journal of Management Science in China, 2016, 19(7): 10-23.

“Analysis of cost and technological diffusion of carbon capture and storage for China: Based on Chinese energy economic endogenous technological model”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, System Engineering: Theory & Practices, 2015, 35(2): 333-341.

“Modelling the evolutionary paths of multiple carbon-free energy technologies with policy incentives”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2015, 20(1): 55-69. 

“CO2 mitigation potential of CCS in China – An evaluation based on an integrated assessment model”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 103: 934-947. 

“Small worldliness, Chinese culture and firm innovation performance: An empirical study based on patent collaboration data of China”, with Gupeng Zhang and Jianghua Zhou, Asia Journal of Technology Innovation, 2015, 23(2): 189-204.

“How do prolific inventors impact firm innovation in ICT: Implications from patent co-inventing network”, with Gupeng Zhang and Xiaofeng Lv, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2014, 26(9): 1091-1110. 

“A cross-country study on relationship between diffusion of wind and photovoltaic solar technology”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2014, 83: 156-169.

“Optimal carbon tax pathways in carbon constrained China-A logistic-induced energy economy hybrid model”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Energy, 2014, 69: 345-356. 

“Review on the integrated assessment model of energy-environment-economy for the global climate change”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Journal of System Engineering, 2014, 29(6): 852-868.

“Modeling for new energy endogenous technological change under action of emission reduction policies”, with Ying Fan, Minglei Liu and Lei Zhu, Journal of System Engineering, 2014, 29(6): 763-770.

“What is the most cost-effective policy of CO2 targeted reduction: an application of aggregated economic technological model with CCS?”, with Ying Fan and Lei Zhu, Applied Energy, 2013, 112: 866-875. 

“China’s wind technology development: The diffusion patterns and policy analysis”, with Lei Zhu and Ying Fan, Journal of Management Science, 2013, 26(4): 113-120.

“International crude oil market trend analysis and price forecast in 2012”, Qiang Ji, Lei Zhu, Jianlei Mo, Jinhua Xu and Ying Fan, Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2012, 27 (1): 44-49.

“Existence of weak nontrivial homoclinic orbits for second order impulsive differential equations”, with Hui Fang, Boundary Value Problems, 2012 (138), doi: 10.1186/1687-2770-2012-138.

“Existence of weak solutions for second-order boundary value problem of impulsive dynamic equations on time scales”, with Hui Fang, Advances in Difference Equations, 2009. Article ID 907368,16 Pages doi: 10.1155/2009/907368. 

Research Interests

Intergrated assessment modelling; Energy system optimization; Technology diffusion and marketing


Poster “China’s carbon neutral strategies under the enhanced warming-limit pledges”, The 13th Annual Meeting of the IAMC, Dec. 1-4, 2020 (Virtual).

Invited presentation “China’s challenges of warming limit: Strategic shift from 2C to well below 1.5C”, GTAP Conference, online, June 17-19, 2020.

Invited session presentation “Non-standard scheme and diffusion of electric vehicles”, 2019 INFORMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, United States, Oct. 20-23, 2019.

Session Chair of “Energy Materials & Technology” and IAAM Scientist Medal Lecture “Uncertain entanglements between photovoltaic and wind technology penetrations”, Stockholm, Sweden, Oct. 9-11, 2019.

Multi-renewable management: Interactions between diffusion of wind and photovoltaic technologies in an uncertain world”, the 24 Annual Meeting of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE), Manchester, UK, Jun. 26-Jun. 29, 2019.

Session Chair of “Regional insights: China (Parallel 1)” and Invited panelist for the 38th International Energy Workshop (IEW2019), Jun. 3-5, Paris, France, 2019.

Session Chair and oral presentation “How will globalization and financial development contribute to energy consumption reduction”, 2019 International Conference on Energy Finance (ICEF), Kunming, China, May 18-19, 2019.

Panelist and plenary speech “Assessing China’s energy and economic risks under the 2-degree warming-limit target: Multi-model comparison analysis”, International Symposium for Global Climate Integrated Assessment Model, Beijing, China, May 13, 2019.

Invited talk “Potential interactions between proliferation of wind and solar PV within uncertain technology ecological system”, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) at Tufts University, Boston, USA, Oct. 2, 2018.

Invited talk “Valuing China’s economic impacts of climate change”, University of Maryland (UMD), College Park, USA, Sep. 25, 2018.

Entanglements between diffusion of wind and solar within uncertain technology ecological system”, the 2018 United Stated Association for Energy Economics (USAEE/IAEE) North American conference, Washington DC, USA, Sep. 23-26, 2018.

Robust climate policy research: multi-model comparison analysis”. 2017 Workshop on ‘Frontiers in Environmental Economics’, Beijing (Beihang University), Dec. 22, 2017.

Keynote speech “E3METL: attempts to bridge top-down and bottom-up modeling framework”, Annual meeting of China Energy Modeling Forum (CEMF), Beijing, Nov. 11-12, 2017.

The potential relationships between China’s climate policies and energy security”, 2017 Research Links: Workshop on emission control and sustainable energy in green port development, Dalian, China, Aug. 26-28, 2017.

Policy effectiveness assessment of China’s optimal adaptation and targeted mitigation”. The 36th IEW International Meeting, College Park, Maryland, USA, Jul. 12-14, 2017.

The timing of China’s carbon peaking under an uncertain future”. The 1st IAEE Eurasian Conference, Baku, Azerbaijan, Aug 27-31, 2016.

Session Chair and presentation “Mitigation and adaptation: Climate damage risk in China”. The 2nd IEEE Symposium on Analytics and Risk, Beijing, China, July 8-9, 2016.

Keynote speech: “Cooperativity for reaching China’s carbon-peaking and non-fossil energy development targets”. The 2st Energy Environment & Modeling Frontier Forum, Nanjing, China, May 13-14, 2016.

Quantifying China’s warming benefit of substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity in mitigating climate change”. IEEE Symposium on Analytics and Risk, Beijing, China, Aug 14-15, 2015.

Staff for the 4th IAEE Asia Conference, and with oral presentation “How will emissions trading scheme affect the China’s long-term evolution of carbon-free technologies?” Beijing, China, Sep 19-21, 2014.

The role of endogenous energy efficiency improvement (EEEI) in climate change abatement”. The IEW2014 International meeting, Beijing, China, Jun 4-6, 2014.

Staff for “Theoretical advances and empirical lessons on emission trading schemes”. Beijing, China, Oct 10-11, 2013.

Optimal carbon taxes in carbon constrained China-a hybrid energy economy environmental model.” The 36th IAEE International Conference, Daegu, Korea, Jun 16-20, 2013.

What’s the most cost-effective policy of CO2 targeted reduction?” The 4th ICAE Annual Meeting, Suzhou, China, Jul 5-8, 2012.

How Policies Stimulate the Evolution of Carbon-free Energy Technologies?” INFORMS International Meeting, Beijing, China, Jun 24-27, 2012.



张迦然  硕士研究生  125100-工商管理  

曹瑶  硕士研究生  125100-工商管理  

李文婷  硕士研究生  125100-工商管理  

张丁漩  硕士研究生  120100-管理科学与工程