Land surface modeling, climate change and water cycle, hydroclimate ensemble prediction, attribution of extremes

Ø  2008:    Ph.D., Meteorology, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Ø  2004:    B.S., Information and Computing Science, Hunan University, China

Ø  07/2014-present:    Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

Ø  03/2011-07/2014:  Associate Climate Specialist, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, USA

Ø  01/2009-02/2011:  Climate Modeler, Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA

Ø  07/2004-12/2008:   Research Assistant, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China 

1.     Yuan, X.*, and E. Zhu, 2018: A first look at decadal hydrological predictability by land surface ensemble simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2362-2369, doi:10.1002/2018GL077211

2.     Yuan, X.*, Y. Jiao, D. Yang, and H. Lei, 2018: Reconciling the attribution of changes in streamflow extremes from a hydroclimate perspective. Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2018WR022714, in press

3.     Yuan, X.*, L. Wang, and E. F. Wood, 2018: Anthropogenic intensification of southern African flash droughts as exemplified by the 2015/16 season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, S86-S90, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-007.1

4.     Yuan, X.*, S. Wang, and Z.-Z. Hu, 2018: Do climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Yangtze River extreme rainfall? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, S113-S117, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0089.1

5.     Zeng, D., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Multi-scale land-atmosphere coupling and its application in assessing subseasonal forecasts over East Asia. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, 745-760, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-17-0215.1.

6.     Yao, M., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Superensemble seasonal forecasting of soil moisture by NMME. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 2565–2574, doi:10.1002/joc.5436

7.     Liang, P., Z.-Z. Hu, Y. Liu, X. Yuan, X. Li, and X. Jiang, 2018: Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China. Climate Dynamics, accepted.

8.     Yuan, X.*, M. Zhang, L. Wang, and T. Zhou, 2017: Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 5477-5492, doi:10.5194/hess-21-5477-2017

9.     Ji, P., X. Yuan*, and X.-Z. Liang, 2017: Do lateral flows matter for the hyperresolution land surface modeling? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 12077-12092, doi:10.1002/2017JD027366

10.  Wang, S., X. Yuan*, and Y. Li, 2017: Does a strong El Niño imply a higher predictability of extreme drought? Scientific Reports, 7, 40741; doi: 10.1038/srep40741.

11.  Hao, Z., X. Yuan, Y. Xia, F. Hao, and V. Singh, 2017: An overview of drought monitoring and prediction systems at regional and global scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 1879–1896, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00149.1.

12.  Lv, M., Z. Ma, X. Yuan, M. Lv, M. Li, and Z. Zheng, 2017: Water budget closure based on GRACE measurements and reconstructed evapotranspiration using GLDAS and water use data for two large densely-populated mid-latitude basins. Journal of Hydrology, 547, 585-599, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol. 2017.02.027

13.  Tian, D., E. F. Wood, and X. Yuan, 2017: CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 1477–1490, doi:10.5194/hess-21-1477-2017

14.  Jiao, Y., H. Lei, D. Yang, M. Huang, D. Liu, and X. Yuan, 2017: Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model. Journal of Hydrology, 551, 116-131, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.060

15.  Koster, R. D., A. K. Betts, P. A. Dirmeyer, M. Bierkens, K. E. Bennett, S. J. Déry, J. Evans, R. Fu, F. Hernandez, L. R. Leung, X. Liang, M. Masood, H. Savenije, G. Wang, and X. Yuan, 2017: Hydroclimatic Variability and Predictability: A Survey of Recent Research, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 3777-3798, doi:10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017

16.  Yuan, X.*, F. Ma, L. Wang, Z. Zheng, Z. Ma, A. Ye, and S. Peng, 2016:An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin-Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2437–2451, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2437-2016

17.  Yuan, X.*, 2016: An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin-Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2453–2466, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2453-2016

18.  Wang, L., X. Yuan*, Z. Xie, P. Wu, Y. Li, 2016: Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus. Scientific Reports, 6, 30571, doi: 10.1038/srep30571

19.  Xie, Z., L. Wang, B. Jia, and X. Yuan, 2016: Measuring and modelling the impact of a severe drought on terrestrial ecosystem CO2 and water fluxes in a subtropical forest.Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 121, 2576-2587, doi:10.1002/2016JG003437

20.  Tang, Q., X. Zhang, Q. Duan, S. Huang, X. Yuan, H. Cui, Z. Li, and X. Liu, 2016: Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: progresses and perspectives. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(7), 904-920, doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1306-z

21.  Yuan, X.*, J. K. Roundy, E. F. Wood, and J. Sheffield, 2015: Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 1895-1912, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00003.1

22.  Yuan, X.*, Z. Ma, M. Pan, and C. Shi, 2015: Microwave remote sensing of short-term droughts during crop growing seasons. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 4394-4401, doi:10.1002/2015GL064125

23.  Ma, F., X. Yuan*, and A. Ye, 2015: Seasonal Drought Predictability and Forecast Skill over China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 8264-8275, doi:10.1002/2015JD023185

24.  Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, and Z. Ma, 2015: A review on climate-model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 2, 523-536, doi: 10.1002/wat2.1088

25.  Roundy, J. K., X. Yuan, J. Schaake, and E. F. Wood, 2015: A framework for diagnosing seasonal prediction through canonical event analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 143, 2404-2418, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00190.1.

26.  Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, and M. Liang, 2014: Integrating weather and climate prediction: toward seamless hydrologic forecasting. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 5891–5896, doi:10.1002/2014GL061076

27.  Hejazi, M., X. Cai, X. Yuan, X.-Z. Liang, and P. Kumar, 2014: Incorporating reanalysis-based short-term forecasts from a regional climate model in an irrigation scheduling optimization problem. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(5), 699-713, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000365

28.  Kam, J., J. Sheffield, X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2014: Did a skilful prediction of sea surface temperatures help or hinder forecasting of the 2012 Midwestern US drought? Environmental Research Letters, 9, 034005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034005

29.  Sheffield, J., E. F. Wood, N. Chaney, K. Guan, S. Sadri, X. Yuan, L. Olang, A. Amani, A. Ali, S. Demuth, and L. Ogallo, 2014: A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 861-882, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00124.1

30.  Yang, L., F. Tian, Y. Sun, X. Yuan, and H. Hu, 2014: Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 775-786, doi:10.5194/hess-18-775-2014

31.  Ye, A., Q. Duan, X. Yuan, E. F. Wood, and J. Schaake, 2014: Hydrologic post-processing of MOPEX streamflow simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 147-156, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.055

32.  Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, J. K. Roundy, and M. Pan, 2013: CFSv2-based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts over conterminous United States. Journal of Climate, 26, 4828-4847, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00683.1

33.  Yuan, X.*, and E. F. Wood, 2013: Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought onset. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 4900-4905, doi:10.1002/grl.50949

34.  Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, N. W. Chaney, J. Sheffield, J. Kam, M. Liang, and K. Guan, 2013: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting of African Drought by Dynamical Models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14, 1706-1720, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-054.1

35.  Kam, J., J. Sheffield, X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2013: The influence of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Drought over the Eastern US (1980-2007). Journal of Climate, 26, 3067-3086, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00244.1

36.  Pan, M., X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2013: A Probabilistic Framework for Assessing Drought Recovery. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 3637-3642, doi:10.1002/grl.50728

37.  Qin, P., Z. Xie, and X. Yuan, 2013: Incorporating groundwater dynamics and surface/subsurface runoff mechanisms in regional climate modeling over river basins in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30, 983-996, doi:10.1007/s00376-012-2095-7

38.  Yuan, X.*, and E. F. Wood, 2012: Downscaling precipitation or bias-correcting streamflow? Some implications for coupled general circulation model (CGCM)-based ensemble seasonal hydrologic forecast. Water Resources Research, 48, W12519, doi:10.1029/2012WR012256

39.  Yuan, X.*, X.-Z. Liang, and E.F. Wood, 2012: WRF ensemble downscaling seasonal forecasts of China winter precipitation during 1982-2008. Climate Dynamics, 39, 2041-2058, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1241-8

40.  Yuan, X.*, and E. F. Wood, 2012: On the clustering of climate models in ensemble seasonal forecasting. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L18701, doi:10.1029/2012GL052735

41.  Liang, X.-Z., M. Xu, X. Yuan, T. Ling, H.I. Choi, F. Zhang, L. Chen, S. Liu, S. Su, F. Qiao, Y. He, J.X.L. Wang, K.E. Kunkel, W.Gao, E. Joseph, V. Morris, T.-W. Yu, J. Dudhia, and J. Michalakes, 2012: Regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting Model (CWRF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 1363-1387, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00180.1

42.  Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, L. Luo, and M. Pan, 2011: A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L13402, doi:10.1029/2011GL047792

43.  Yuan, X., and X.-Z. Liang, 2011: Improving cold season precipitation prediction by the nested CWRF-CFS system. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L02706, doi:10.1029/2010GL046104

44.  Yuan, X., and X.-Z. Liang, 2011: Evaluation of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Process Model (CSSP) over the contiguous United States at regional-local scales. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12, 579-599, doi:10.1175/2010JHM1302.1

45.  Di, Z., Z. Xie, X. Yuan, X. Tian, Z. Luo, and Y. Chen, 2011: Prediction of water table depths under soil water-groundwater interaction and stream water conveyance. Science China-Earth Sciences, 54, 420-430, doi:10.1007/s11430-010-4050-8

46.  Xie, Z., and X. Yuan, 2010: Prediction of water table under stream-aquifer interactions over an arid region. Hydrological Processes, 24, 160-169, doi:10.1002/hyp.7434

47.  Yuan, X., Z. Xie, and M. Liang, 2009: Sensitivity of regionalized transfer function noise models to the input and parameter transfer method. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 54, 639-651, doi:10.1623/hysj.54.3.639

48.  Yuan, X., Z. Xie, J. Zheng, X. Tian and Z.-L. Yang, 2008: Effects of water table dynamics on regional climate: A case study over east Asian monsoon area. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D21112, doi:10.1029/2008JD010180

49.  Yuan, X., Z. Xie, and M. Liang, 2008: Spatiotemporal prediction of shallow water table depths in continental China. Water Resources Research, 44, W04414, doi:10.1029/2006WR005453

50.  Yao, M., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Evaluation of summer drought ensemble prediction over Yellow River basin. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, accepted.

51.  杨大文，徐宗学，李哲，袁星，王磊，缪驰远，田富强，田立德，龙笛，汤秋鸿，刘星才，张学君. 水文学研究进展与展望. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37（1），36-45.

52.  朱江,马柱国,严中伟,袁星,符淙斌.气候变化背景下雄安新区发展中面临的问题.中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32(11):1231-1236.

53.  李耀辉, 周广胜, 袁星, 等．干旱气象科学研究—“我国北方干旱致灾过程及机理”项目概述与主要进展. 干旱气象, 2017, 35(2): 165-174.

54.  郑婧, 谢正辉, 戴永久, 袁星, 毕训强.陆面过程模型CoLM与区域气候模式RegCM3的耦合及初步评估. 大气科学, 2009, 33(4):737-750.

55.  谢正辉, 梁妙玲, 袁星, 陈锋, 刘春蓁, 刘志雨.黄淮海平原浅层地下水埋深对气候变化响应. 水文, 2009, 29(1): 30-35.

56.  Pan, M., X. Yuan, H. Lu, X. Li, and G. Qin, 2016: Soil moisture estimation using active and passive remote sensing techniques. Chapter 3 in Satellite Remote Sensing and Hydrological Capacity Building for Emerging Regions, edited by Y. Hong, Y. Zhang, and S. Khan, CRC Press（论著）

57.  Wood, E. F., X. Yuan, J. K. Roundy, M. Pan, and L. Luo, 2015: Seasonal drought forecasting on the example of the USA. In: Duan Q., Pappenberger F., Thielen J., Wood A., Cloke H., Schaake J. (eds) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. （论著）

已指导学生

王琳瑛  博士研究生  070601-气象学  

季鹏  博士研究生  070601-气象学  

曾鼎文  博士研究生  070601-气象学  

朱恩达  博士研究生  070601-气象学  

张苗  博士研究生  070601-气象学  

现指导学生

李晨远  博士研究生  070601-气象学