气候动力学和气候预测

   

070601-气象学

短期气候预测，极端天气，北极海冰

2009-09--2014-06   中国科学院大气物理研究所   博士
2005-09--2009-07   南京信息工程大学   学士

   

2020-02~现在, 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 副研究员
2014-07~2020-01,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 助理研究员

   

[1] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters[J]. 2023, 第 1 作者http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100417.
[2] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. New downscaling prediction models for spring drought in China. International Journal of Climatology[J]. 2022, 第 1 作者42(13): 6960-6975, 
[3] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Absence of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Over the Western North Pacific in July 2020 and Its Prediction by CFSv2. Frontiers in Earth Science[J]. 2021, 第 1 作者9(973): http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.771172.
[4] 杨洪卿, 范可, 田宝强, 华维. 为什么NCEP-CFSv2模式对11月西伯利亚高压强度的预测性能较好. 大气科学[J]. 2021, 第 3 作者45(4): 697-712, http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/dqkx/cn/article/doi/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.20106.
[5] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season. Climate Dynamics[J]. 2020, 第 1 作者54(3-4): 1523-1538, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05068-6.
[6] 王会军, 任宏利, 陈活泼, 马洁华, 田宝强, 孙博, 黄艳艳, 段明铿, 汪君, 王琳, 周放. 中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾. 气象学报[J]. 2020, 第 5 作者78(3): 317-331, http://qxxb.cmsjournal.net/cn/article/doi/10.11676/qxxb2020.022.
[7] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Climate prediction of summer extreme precipitation frequency in the Yangtze River valley based on sea surface temperature in the southern Indian Ocean and ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea. International Journal of Climatology[J]. 2020, 第 1 作者  通讯作者  40(9): 4117-4130, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6446.
[8] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Why is the North Atlantic Oscillation More Predictable in December?. Atmosphere[J]. 2019, 第 1 作者10(8): https://doaj.org/article/7c7a43dae1af4dfb8844ae0270adc5f8.
[9] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Seasonal Climate Prediction Models for the Number of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in China. Journal of Meteorological Research[J]. 2019, 第 1 作者33(5): 837-850, http://lib.cqvip.com/Qikan/Article/Detail?id=7100466253.
[10] Dai, Haixia, Fan, Ke, Tian, Baoqiang. A hybrid downscaling model for winter temperature over northeast China. International Journal of Climatology[J]. 2018, 第 3 作者38: E349-E363, https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000431999600024.
[11] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke, Yang, Hongqing. East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system. Climate Dynamics[J]. 2018, 第 1 作者  通讯作者  51(7-8): 2793-2805, https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000444947600024.
[12] Fan, Yi, Fan, Ke, Tian, Baoqiang. Has the Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Improved Since the Late 1970s?. Journal of Meteorological Research[J]. 2016, 第 3 作者30(6): 833-852, http://lib.cqvip.com/Qikan/Article/Detail?id=81888887504849544854484849.
[13] 范可, 田宝强, 刘颖. 2015/2016年极强厄尔尼诺事件下我国动力和统计结合实时气候预测研究. 大气科学学报[J]. 2016, 第 2 作者39(6): 744-755, http://lib.cqvip.com/Qikan/Article/Detail?id=670937010.
[14] Fan, Ke, Tian, Baoqiang, Wang, Huijun. New approaches for the skillful prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation based on coupled dynamic climate models. International Journal of Climatology[J]. 2016, 第 2 作者36(1): 82-94, https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000367734800006.
[15] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Seasonal Prediction Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon: ENSEMBLES versus DEMETER. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters[J]. 2015, 第 1 作者8(4): 208-214, http://lib.cqvip.com/Qikan/Article/Detail?id=664783035.
[16] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. A Skillful Prediction Model for Winter NAO Based on Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eurasian Snow Cover. Weather and Forecasting[J]. 2015, 第 1 作者  通讯作者  30(1): 197-205, https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000349856900012.
[17] Fan, Ke, Xu, Zhiqing, Tian, Baoqiang. Has the intensity of the interannual variability in summer rainfall over South China remarkably increased?. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics[J]. 2014, 第 3 作者124(1-2): 23-32, https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000333236400002.
[18] Tian, Baoqiang, Fan, Ke. Factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation in the upper Yangtze River Valley. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics[J]. 2013, 第 1 作者121(3-4): 189-197, https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000322339700008.
[19] Fan, Ke, Tian, Baoqiang. Prediction of wintertime heavy snow activity in Northeast China. Chinese Science Bulletin[J]. 2013, 第 2 作者58(12): 1420-1426, https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/full-record/WOS:000318127100011.

   

（ 1 ） 中国北方地区极端气候变化趋势的预估, 参与, 国家任务, 2016-07--2021-06
（ 2 ） 新北极气候系统变化机理和气候预测研究, 参与, 国家任务, 2022-06--2026-05
（ 3 ） 我国西南地区重要持续性旱涝事件的气候演变和物理机制及预测研究, 参与, 国家任务, 2023-01--2027-12