基本信息

周菲凡  研究员、博士生导师 

中国科学院大气物理研究所 

电子邮件:zff@mail.iap.ac.cn
通信地址:北京市朝阳区北辰西路81号中国科学院大气物理研究所LACS
邮政编码:100029

研究领域

台风、暴雨的目标观测和可预报性研究

招生信息

招生专业
070601-气象学
招生方向
台风、暴雨等中小尺度系统的观测与预报研究

教育背景

2004-09--2009-06 中国科学院大气物理研究所 博士
2000-09--2004-06 南京信息工程大学 学士学位

工作经历

2022-02~现在, 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 研究员
2018-07~2019-07,美国国家海洋大气管理局, 访问学者
2016-11~2017-02,美国马里兰大学大气科学系, 访问学者
2015-08~2015-11,日本气象局气象研究所, 访问学者
2014-04~2014-09,美国犹他大学大气科学系, 访问学者
2012-04~2022-01,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 副研究员
2009-07~2012-04,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 助理研究员

教授课程

地球流体动力学

专利与奖励

软件著作权:

(1)条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)台风目标观测框架系统,2013SR132784,软件开发人:穆穆、周菲凡、王洪利、段晚锁、秦晓昊
(2)基于WRF模式的繁殖向量生成系统,2018SR925590,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(3)基于WRF模式的集合奇异向量(ESV)生成系统,2019SR1166814,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(4)基于WRF模式的非线性最优化误差识别系统,2021SR0436375,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(5)基于WRF模式的CNOP生成系统,2021SR1342878,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(6)基于WRF模式的初值敏感性分析系统, 2023SR0578278,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(7)基于MM5模式的伴随敏感区生成系统,2023SR0579140,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(8)基于WRF模式和BV方法的集合预报初值生成系统,2024SR2174105,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(9)基于WRF模式和CNOP_P方法的集合预报系统,2024SR2132728,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺
(10)基于WRF模式和CNOP方法的集合预报初值生成系统,2024SR1699326,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺、段晚锁、叶一苇
(11)针对降雨预报的目标观测系统,2024SR1903116,软件开发人:周菲凡、张贺、叶一苇、鲁子翰






出版信息

1.      高守亭,周菲凡.  2006: 基于螺旋度的中尺度平衡方程及非平衡流诊断方法,大气科学,Vol.30, No.5854-862.
2.      穆穆,王洪利,周菲凡,  2007: 条件非线性最优扰动方法在适应性观测研究中的初步应用,大气科学,Vol.31, No.6, 1102-1112.
3.      Gao, S. T., and F. F. Zhou, 2008: Water vapor potential vorticity and its application in tropical cyclones, Chin.Phys.Lett.,Vol.25, No.10, 3830-3833.
4.      Mu, M., F. F. Zhou, and H. L. Wang, 2009: A method to identify the sensitive areas in targeting for tropical cyclone prediction: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation, Mon.Wea.Rev., Vol.137, 1623-1639. 
5.      Gao, S. T., F. F. Zhou, and L. P. Liu, 2009: Instability of symmetric typhoon circulation and adaptive observation. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 15, 162-166. 
6.      Jiang, Z. N., H. L. Wang, F. F. Zhou and M. Mu, 2009: Applications of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations to Ensemble Prediction and Adaptive Observation. "Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications" by the Springer-Verlag. Park, Seon K., Xu, Liang, 2009, Approx. 290 p. 109 illus., 51 in color., Hardcover. ISBN: 978-3-540-71055-4. 
7.      王晓雷,朱克云,周菲凡,2010:条件非线性最优扰动在南海台风中的应用研究. 成都信息工程学院学报,25(6), 640-646.
8.      穆穆,陈博宇,周菲凡,余堰山,2011:气象预报的方法与不确定性. 气象, 37(1), 1-13.
9.      Zhou, F. F., and M. Mu, 2011: The impact of verification area design on tropical cyclone targeted observations based on the CNOP method. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28(5), 997–1010, doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-0120-x. 
10.   Zhou, F. F., and M. Mu, 2012a: The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29, 36-46, doi: 10.1007/s00376-011-1003-x. 
11.   Zhou, F. F., and M. Mu, 2012b: The time and regime dependences of sensitive areas for tropical cyclone prediction using the CNOP method. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29, 705-716. doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1174-0. 
12.   Zhou, F. F.
, R. Q. Ding, G. L. Feng, Z. T. Fu, and W. S. Duan, 2012: Progresses in the studies of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and predictability for weather and climate in China (2007-2010). Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1048-1062, doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1204-y. 
13.   穆穆,秦晓昊,周菲凡,陈博宇,2012: 加强目标观测, 服务防灾减灾.《成都信息工程学院学报》, 27(1), 20-26.
14.   王晓雷,周菲凡, 朱克云,2013:条件非线性最优扰动方法在台风风神和凤凰相互作用过程中的
应用研究,热带气象学报,29, 265-274. 
15.   高守亭, 刘丽丽, 周菲凡. 2013. 气旋波动研究进程及研究方法 [J]. 气候与环境研究,182):261–270doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.11099.(通讯作者)
16.   段晚锁, 丁瑞强, 周菲凡. 2013. 数值天气预报和气候预测可预报性研究的若干动力学方法 [J]. 气候与环境研究,18 (4): 524–538doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.12009. (通讯作者)
17.   Duan, W. S., and F. F. Zhou, 2013: Nonlinear forcing singular vector of a two-dimensional quasigeostrophic model. Tellus A, 65, 18452, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.18452. 
18.   Zhou, F., X. Qin, B. Chen, and M. Mu. 2013: Chapter 24 The advances in targeted observations for tropical cyclone prediction based on conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. "Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications (Vol. II)" by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013. Park, S. K., and Xu, L. (eds.).  DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-35088-7_24. pp.577-606. (通讯作者)
19.   Mu, M., F. Zhou, X. Qin, and B. Chen. 2013: Chapter 17 The application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to targeted observations for tropical cyclone prediction. WS R.V- 9x6in- 9027- Frontiers in Diffn.Geotry.  pp. 287-322.
20.   周菲凡,张贺. 2014. 基于CNOP 方法的台风目标观测中三种敏感区确定方案的比较研究 [J]. 大气科学, 38 (2): 261–272, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895. 2013.13129. 
21.   Wang Xiaolei, Feifan Zhou, Keyun Zhu. 2014. The application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to the binary typhoons interaction –Fengshen and Fung-Wong.[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology. 20(4): 314-322. (通讯作者)
22.   Zhou, F. F.,
X. P. Cui, 2015: The adjoint sensitivity of heavy rainfall to initial conditions in debris flow areas in China. Atmos. Sci. Let. 16, 485-491. Doi: 10.1002/asl.586. 
23.   穆穆,周菲凡2015:基于CNOP方法的台风目标观测研究进展。气象科技进展. 5(3), 6-17. (通讯作者)
24.   Zhou, F. F., M. Yamaguchi, X.H. Qin, 2016: Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the GRAPES model for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: initial uncertainties. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 33(7), 841–851. doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-5238-4. 
25.   Gao Shouting, Zhou Feifan, and Zuo Qunjie, 2016: The mesoscale balance and imbalance and the corresponding potential vorticity inversion from the view of helicity. J. Meteor. Res., 30(4), 559-571, doi: 10.1007/s13351-016-5115-1. (通讯作者)
26.   Zhou F. and H. Zhang, 2018: The Impact of Nonlinearity on the Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction. A.A. Tsonis (ed.), Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences, 675-692. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7_32(通讯作者)
27.   Zhang L., S. Yuan, B. Mu and F. Zhou, 2017: CNOP-Based Sensitive Areas Identification for Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observations with PCAGA Method. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 53(1), 63-73. DOI:10.1007/s13143-017-0005-8. 
28.   Zhou, F. F., W. S. Duan, H. Zhang, and M. Yamaguchi, 2018: Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: Model uncertainty. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 35(10), 12771290, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-7095-9. (通讯作者
)
29.   刘娜, 段晚锁, 王自发, 唐晓, 周菲凡. 2018. 北京地区一次空气重污染过程的目标观测分析 [J]. 气候与环境研究,23 (5): 619632. 
30.   Zhang L., B. Mu, S. Yuan, and F. Zhou, 2018: A novel approach for solving CNOPs and its application in identifying sensitive regions of tropical cyclone adaptive observations. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 693–712, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-693-2018.
31.   Mu Bin, Ren Juhui, Yuan Shijin, Zhou Feifan, 2019: Identifying typhoon targeted observations sensitive areas using the gradient definition based method. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 55:195–207. 
32.  
Huo, Z. H., W. S. Duan, and F. F. Zhou, 2019: Ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone track with orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36(2), 231–247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-8001-1. 
33.   段晚锁,汪叶,霍振华,周菲凡.2019: 数值天气预报和气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望[J].气候与环境研究,24(3):396-406,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2018.18133
34.   Mu B., L. Zhang, S. Yuan, Y. Qian, S. Wen, J. Yan, F. Zhou, 2019: Intelligent algorithms for solving CNOP and their applications in ENSO predictability and tropical cyclone adaptive observations [J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2019,25(01):63-81.
35.  
Zhou, F.F., and Z. Toth, 2020: On the prospects for improved tropical cyclone track forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,101, 2058-2077, http://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0166.1
36.   卢楚翰, 林琳, 周菲凡. 2020. 一次粤西南暴雨过程的预报误差来源分析[J]. 大气科学, 44(6): 1337−1348.【通讯作者】
37.   王毅,代刊,张晓美,唐健,周菲凡,马杰,2020:集合敏感性在预报误差及可预报性研究中的应用进展综述. 气象科技进展,10(2), 58-64.
38.   罗亚丽,孙继松,李英,夏茹娣,杜宇,杨帅,张元春,陈静,代刊,沈学顺,陈昊明,周菲凡,刘屹岷,傅慎明,吴梦雯,肖天贵,陈杨瑞雪,黎慧琦,李明鑫, 2020: 中国暴雨的科学与预报:改革开放40 年研究成果. 气象学报,783):419-450 
39.   Yuan, S., C. Wang, B. Mu, F. Zhou, W. Duan, 2021: Typhoon Intensity Forecasting Based on LSTM Using the Rolling Forecast Method. Algorithms, 14, 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/a14030083
40.   Lin, L., C. Lu, and F. Zhou, 2022: Sources of forecast errors for rainstorms in the South China Monsoon Region. Advances in Meteorology, Volume 2022, Article ID: 3298501. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3298501
【通讯作者】
41.   周菲凡, 叶一苇, 段晚锁, 张贺. 2022: 伴随敏感性方法、第一奇异向量方法以及条件非线性最优扰动方法在台风目标观测敏感区识别中的比较研究[J]. 大气科学, 46(3): 677−690. 
42.   林琳卢楚翰周菲凡. 2022: 2020 年梅汛期强降水事件的预报误差来源分析 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(4): 469−479. 【通讯作者】
43.   Yuan Shijin, Shi Bo, Zhao Zijun, Mu Bin, Zhou Feifan, Duan Wansuo, 2022: Ensemble Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Based on CNOP-P Method: A Case Study of WRF Model and Two Typhoons[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2022, 28(2): 121-138, https://doi.org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2022.010
44.   Feng, J., Wang, J., Dai, G., Zhou, F. & Duan,W. , 2023: Spatiotemporal estimation of analysis errors in the operational global data assimilation system at the China Meteorological Administration using a modified SAFE method. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 119. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4507
45.   Ye, Y., and F. Zhou, 2024: Reasons for Different Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Vol.105Issue 12, E2263–E2282 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0020.1
【通讯作者】
46.   周菲凡、叶一苇、张晗、杨雅雯,2024:不同尺度初始误差对2021年台风烟花路径和强度模拟预报的影响研究. 大气科学,doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2405.24023
47. Yuan, S. J., G. S. Wang, B. Mu, and F. F. Zhou, 2025: TianXing: A Linear Complexity Transformer Model with Explicit Attention Decay for Global Weather Forecasting, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 42, 9-25. doi: 10.1007/s00376-024-3313-9.
48. 原辉、胡帆、鲁子翰、傅慎明、周菲凡,2025:山西地区一次强降水过程的目标观测研究。大气科学,已接收【通讯作者】

49.宋宛凝,乔枫雪,周菲凡,潘小乐,唐晓,孔磊,2025. 京津冀地区一次空气污染过程的污染物目标观测研究。气候与环境研究,已接收【通讯作者】


指导学生

已指导学生

霍振华  博士研究生  070601-气象学  

现指导学生

叶一苇  博士研究生  070601-气象学  

宋宛凝  硕士研究生  070600-大气科学