基本信息
段晚锁  男  博导  中国科学院大气物理研究所
电子邮件: duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
通信地址: 北京9804信箱
邮政编码: 100029

感兴趣的研究方向

可预报性理论、方法及其应用,集合预报,目标观测,以及动力系统定性理论在大气和海洋动力学研究中的应用等

招生信息

欢迎有志于从事气候动力学及可预报性研究的青年教师及学生(本科生及硕士研究生)报考
招生专业
070601-气象学
070620-地球流体力学
070701-物理海洋学
招生方向
天气、气候可预报性; 集合预报,资料同化和目标观测
非线性海气相互作用动力学及其数值模拟

教育背景

2000-09--2003-07   中科院大气物理研究所   (气象学)研究生/博士学位
1997-09--2000-07   昆明理工大学   (应用数学专业)研究生/硕士
1991-09--1995-07   山西大学   (基础数学)本科/学士

工作经历

   
工作简历
2017-07~2017-08,University of Northern British Columnbia, Prince Geoger, Canada, 高级访问学者
2014-03~2014-04,澳大利亚CSRIO, 高级访问学者
2010-01~现在, 中科院大气物理研究所, 研究员
2006-11~2010-01,中科院大气物理研究所, 副研究员
2003-07~2006-11,中科院大气物理研究所, 助理研究员
社会兼职
2017-10-01-今,Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, editor
2015-12-31-今,第七届CNC-WCRP, 委员
2014-01-01-今,宁波大学非线性海气灾害系统协同创新中心学术委员会, 委员
2013-07-31-今,国际动力气象学委员会(IAMAS-ICDM), 委员
2011-08-01-今,Advances in Meteorology” 杂志Guest editor, Guest editor
2011-01-01-今, 中国气象学会动力气象学委员会委员, 委员
2010-01-01-今,"Advance in Atmospheric Sciences"杂志编委, 编委
2010-01-01-今,《大气科学》杂志编委, 常务编委
2008-12-31-今,国务院学位委员会第六届大气科学学科评议组, 学术秘书

教授课程

地球流体动力学
非线性大气和海洋动力学

获奖与荣誉

(1) 中科院青年创新促进会优秀会员,2016

(2)“中国科学院青年人才创新促进会”会员,2011 

(3) 中科院卢嘉锡青年人才奖,2009 

(4) 中科院大气物理研究所“2009年度先进工作者”,2009 

(5) 全国优秀青年气象科技工作者,2006 

(6) 全国优秀博士论文,2006 

(7) 中国科学院优秀博士论文,2005




发表论文

(1)数值天气预报、气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望。气候与环境研究,2018.已接收。第一作者。

(2)Ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone track with orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations.  Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2018. accpted. 通讯作者

(3)The role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole events. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018. 通讯作者

(4) Progress in ENSO prediction and predictability study. National Science Review. 2018.

(5)Asymmetry of the predictability limit of the warm ENSO phase. Geophysical Research Letters. 2018.

(6)The application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to typhoon track ensemble forecasts. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018. 通讯作者

(7)Impact of SST anomaly events over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension on the "summer prediction barrier".Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018.

(8)北京地区一次空气重污染过程的目标观测分析[J]. 气候与环境研究. 2018. 通讯作者

(9)"Summer Predictability Barrier" of Indian Ocean Dipole Events and Corresponding Error Growth Dynamics. JGR-Ocean, 2018. 通讯作者 

(10)Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: model uncertainty. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018.

(11)Investigating the initial errors that cause predictability barriers for IOD events using CMIP5 model outputs. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018. 通讯作者 

(12) Towards optimal observational array for dealing with challenges of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions due to diversities of El Niño. Climate Dynamics, 2018.第一作者

(13)季风与ENSO的选择性相互作用:年循环和春季预报障碍的影响。大气科学,2018

(14)粒子滤波同化在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动目标观测中的应用。大气科学,2018. 第一作者

(15)Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events.Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 2018. 第一作者

(16)The application of nonlinear local Lyapynov vectors to the Zebiak-Cane model and their performance in ensemble prediction. Clim Dyn. 2017.

(17)耦合模式中北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度年代际可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性,地球科学进展,2017.

(18)The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects.Science China: Earth Sciencess, 2017. 通讯作者

(19)On the "spring predictability barrier" for strong El Nino events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2017. 通讯作者

(20)Nonlinearity Modulating Intensities and Spatial Structures of Central Pacific- and Eastern Pacific-El Niño Events. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2017.第一作者 

(21)Relationship between optimal precursors for Indian Ocean Dipole events and optimally growing initial errors in its prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2017.

(22)Reducing the prediction uncertainties of high-impact weather and climate events: an overview of studies at LASG. Journal of Meteorological Research. 2017.第一作者

(23)Numerical Analysis of the Mixed 4th-Order Runge-Kutta Scheme of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Model, Adv. Appl. Math. Mech., 2016.

(24)The role of nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2016.第一作者

(25)IOD-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors for IOD predictions from reanalysis data.  SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2016,通讯作者

(26)Seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension: low in summer and high in winter, JGR-Ocean, 2016,通讯作者

(27)Time-scale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016,通讯作者

(28)Relationship between optimal precursory disturbances and optimally growing initial errors associated with ENSO events: Implications to target observations for ENSO prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 2016.通讯作者

(29)Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions, Climate Dynamics,2016. 通讯作者

(30)Comparison of constant and time-variant optimal forcing approaches in El Niño simulations by using the Zebiak-Cane model.  Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 通讯作者

(31)An approach to generating mutually independent initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts: orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 第一作者

(32)Application of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Targeted Observation Studies of the Atmosphere and Ocean,  J. Meteor. Res,. 2015
(33)关于线性奇异向量和条件非线性最优扰动差别的一个注记。气候与环境研究,2015,通讯作者
(34)The influence of boreal winter extratropical North Pacific Oscillation on Australian spring rainfall, Clim Dyn, 2015, 通讯作者 
(35) Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and the "spring predictability barrier" for El Nino predictions. Duan Wansuo, Mu Mu, Chapter 5 in Climate Change edited by Chin-Pei Chang, Michael Ghil, Mojib Latif, and John M. Wallace. World Scientific Series on Asian-Pacific Weather and Climate, 2015.
(36)Comparison of the initial errors most likely to cause a spring predictability barrier for two types of El Nino event. Clim Dyn, 2015, 通讯作者
(37) Interannual Relationship between the Winter Aleutian Low and Rainfall in the Following Summer in South China, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett, 2015,通讯作者
(38) The initial errors that induce a significant “spring predictability barrier” for El Nino events and their implications for target observations:results from an earth system model,Clim Dyn, 2015,第一作者
(39) Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting, National Science Review,2015, 通讯作者
(40) The “winter predictability barrier” for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: results from a fully coupled GCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2014, 通讯作者
(41) Influence of Positive/Negative Indian Ocean Dipole on Pacific ENSO through Indonesian Throughflow: results from Sensitivity Experiments, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2014, 通讯作者
(42) Revealing the most disturbing tendency error of Zebiak-Cane model associated with El Nino predictions by nonlinear forcing singular vector approach,Climate Dynamics,2014,第1作者 
(43) Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies,Climate Dynamics,2014,第1作者 
(44) Study on the “winter persistence barrier” of Indian Ocean dipole events using observation data and CMIP5 model outputs,Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2014,通讯作者 
(45) A SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm for calculating conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation, SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences,2014,第2作者
(46)  Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for El Niño events, SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences, 2014,通讯作者 
(47)  ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区在热带太平洋海温的多模式集合预报中的应用,大气科学,2014,通讯作者 
(48) Time-dependent nonlinear forcing singular vector-type tendency error of the Zebiak-Cane model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014,通讯作者 
(49)The combined effect of initial error and model error on ENSO prediction uncertainty generated by the Zebiak-Cane model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014,通讯作者 
(50) The spatial patterns of initial errors related to the “winter predictability barrier” of the Indian Ocean dipole, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014,通讯作者 
(51) Conditions under which CNOP Sensitivity Is Valid for Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observations,Quarterly J. RMS,2013,通讯作者 
(52) 条件非线性最优扰动方法在可预报性研究中的应用,大气科学,2013,第2作者 
(53) 数值天气预报和气候预测可预报性研究的若干动力学方法,气候与环境研究,2013,第1作者 
(54) Climate Variability and Predictability at Various Time Scales,Advances in Meteorology,2013,第3作者 
(55) Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific,Climate Dynamics,2013,第4作者 
(56) Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the inter-annual variability of early summer rainfall over South China,JGR-Atmosphere,2013,第1作者 
(57) Simulations of two types of El Nino events by an optimal forcing vector approach,Climate Dynamics,2013,第1作者 
(58) The role of nonlinearities associated with air-sea coupling processes in El Nino’s peak-phase locking,Sciences in China (D),2013,第1作者 
(59) Behaviors of nonlinearities modulating El Nino events induced by optimal precursory disturbance,Climate Dynamics,2013,第1作者 
(60) The role of constant optimal forcing in correcting forecast model,Sciences in China (D),2013,通讯作者 
(61) Nonlinear forcing singular vector of a two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic model,Tellus-A,2013,第1作者 
(62) Does model parameter error cause a significant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model,J. Climate,2012,通讯作者 
(63)Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions,JGR-Ocean,2012,第3作者 
(64) The spring predictability barrier for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism: results from a fully coupled model,Inter. J. Climatology,2012,第1作者 
(65) The amplitude-duration relation of the observed El Nino events,Atmos. Oceano. Sci. Lett.,2012,通讯作者 
(66) 四个耦合模式ENSO后报试验的“春季预报障碍”,气象学报,2012,第3作者 
(67)Progresses in the studies of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics and predictability for weather and climate in China (2007-2010),Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2012,第5作者 
(68) Can the Uncertainties of Madden–Jullian Oscillation Cause a Significant Spring Predictability Barrier for ENSO Events,Acta Meteorologica Sinica.,2012,第2作者 
(69) Effect of Stochastic MJO Forcing on ENSO Predictability,Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2011,通讯作者 
(70) A new strategy for solving a class of nonlinear optimization problems related to weather and climate predictability,Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2010,第1作者 
(71) An extension of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach and its applications,Nonlin. Processes Geophys,2010,通讯作者 
(72) The “Spring Predictability Barrier” Phenomenon of ENSO Predictions Generated with the FGOALS-g Model,AOSL,2010,通讯作者 
(73) Is model parameter error related to spring predictability barrier for El Nino events,Adv. Atmos. Sci,2010,第1作者 
(74) Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: applications to stability, sensitivity, and predictability,Science in China (D),2009,第1作者 
(75) Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model,Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society,2009,第2作者 
(76)Decisive role of nonlinear temperature advection in El Nino and La Nina amplitude asymmetry,J. Geophysical Research,2009,第1作者 
(77) Exploring the initial error that causes a significant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events,J. Geophysical Research,2009,第1作者 
(78) 赤道高频纬向风强迫对ENSO强度的影响,气候与环境研究,2009,第2作者 
(79) Zebiak-Cane数值模式的可预报性分析,气候与环境研究,2008,第2作者 
(80) What kind of initial errors cause the severest prediction uncertainties for El Nino in Zebiak-Cane model,Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2008,通讯作者 
(81) Investigating a nonlinear characteristic of ENSO events by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation,Atmospheric Research,2008,第1作者 
(82) Season-dependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and ENSO predictability in a theoretical model,Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,第1作者 
(83) A kind of initial errors related to “spring predictability barrier“ for El Nino event in Zebiak-Cane model,Geophysical Research Letters,2007,第3作者 
(84) Progress in predictability studies in China (2003-2006),Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2007,第1作者 
(85) Investigating decadal variability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation,J. Geophysical. Research,2006,第1作者 
(86) Applications of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation in predictability study and sensitivity analysis of weather and climate,Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2006,通讯作者 
(87) 用非线性最优化方法研究El Nino可预报性的进展与前瞻,大气科学,2006,第1作者 
(88) The Tangent Linear Model and Adjoint of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and Its Application to the Predictability of ENSO,International Geoscience and Remote Sencing Symposium,2006,第2作者 
(89) 数值模式误差对降水四维变分资料同化及预报的影响,气候与环境研究,2006,第2作者 
(90) Applications of nonlinear optimization method to the numerical studies of atmospheric and oceanic sciences,Appl. Math. Mech.,2005,第1作者 
(91) Applications of nonlinear optimization methods to quantifying the numerical model for ENSO,Progress in Natural Sciences,2005,第1作者 
(92) Recent advances in predictability studies in China (1999-2002),Adv. Atmos. Sci.,2004,第2作者 
(93) Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation as the optimal precursors for El Nino-Southern Oscillation events,J. Geophy. Res.,2004,第1作者 
(94) Chaotic and resonant streamlines in quasi-symmetric flows,Mathematic Applicata,2004,第1作者


科研活动

   
科研项目
( 1 ) 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件可预报性的非线性误差增长动力学, 主持, 国家级, 2016-01--2021-12
( 2 ) 非线性强迫奇异向量及其在ENSO第二类可预报性研究中的应用, 主持, 国家级, 2012-01--2015-12
( 3 ) 东亚季风气候年际-年代际变率及人类活动影响模拟及预测研究, 主持, 国家级, 2012-01--2016-12
会议报告

国际/国内会议邀请报告 
(1) Wansuo Duan, Hui Xu, A study on ENSO asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation, Asia Oceanic Geosciences Society16-20 June, 2008, Busan,Korea. (邀请报告)
(2) Wansuo Duan, Mu Mu, Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications to thestudies of ENSO predictability. 1st PRIMA conference, Sydney,Australia. 6-10 July, 2009. (30 分钟邀请报告)
(3) Wansuo Duan, Xinchao Liu, Mu Mu, Characteristic of initial errors that cause a significant springpredictability barrier for El Nino events. AOGS 2009, Singapore, 10-15 August,2009. (30分钟邀请报告)
(4) Wansuo Duan, Revealing a new feature of ENSO events, EGU2010, May 2-7, 2010, Vienna, Austria.(邀请报告)
(5) Wansuo Duan, MuMu, Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications. CIMPAUNESCO THEMATIC SCHOOL, DATAASSIMILATION FOR GEOPHYSICAL FLUIDS, WUHAN (China), May 3 – May 14 , 2010 (60分钟邀请报告)
(6) 段晚锁,非线性最优化方法及其在天气和气候可预报性研究中的应用,全国流体力学数值方法研讨会,2011年8月,北京香山(大会邀请报告)
(7) Wansuo Duan, Wei Chao, The "spring predictabilitybarrier" for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism: results from afully coupled model. EGU 2012 General Assembly,22-27 April 2012,Vienna,Austria.(特邀报告)
(8) Wansuo Duan, Yu Yanshan, Does model parameter error cause asignificant spring predictability barrier for El Nino events in the Zebiak-Canemodel? AOGS-AGU 2012 General Assembly,August 13-17 2012,Singapore (特邀报告)
(9) Wansuo Duan, Wu Yujie, Season-dependent predictability of PDO-related SST anomalies and its error growth dynamics. 中国海洋局海洋二所2013年度学术年会,杭州, 2014年1月7-9日。(特邀报告)
(10) Duan Wansuo,Nonlinear forcing singular vector and related predictability,2015 International Workshop on Control problem with PDE constraints and interface problems. Nanjing Normal University, Xianlin Campus from June 10 to June 12, 2015 (特邀报告)
(11) Wansuo Duan, Tian Ben, Constrasting initial errors that cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO. IGU2015, Moscow, Aug. 17-21, 2015. (邀请报告)
(12) 段晚锁,ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区及其在热带太平洋海温多模式集合预报中的应用。ENSO和次季节-季节气候预测技术研讨会,成都,9月14-15日, 2015(邀请报告)
(13) 段晚锁,非线性强迫奇异向量方法及其在ENSO可预报性研究中的应用。中科院大气所2014-2015年度学术年会。北京,9月24日,2015(邀请报告)
(14) Wansuo Duan, Feng Rong, Mu Mu, Target observation of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events. 全国气候系统研究学术研讨会,中国南京,11月25-27日, 2015(特邀报告)

(15) WansuoDuan, Tian Ben, Chen Lei, Li Xuquan, Comparison of initial errors most likely to cause a significant spring predictability barrier for two types of El Nino events. 西太平洋海洋环流与ENSO及中长期气候动力学研讨会, 青岛,12.7-8, 2015.(邀请报告)

(16) 段晚锁,构造集合预报初始扰动的新方法及其在台风预报研究中的应用,中国气象科学研究院年会,北京,1.7-8日,2016(特邀报告)

(17) Wansuo Duan, Ben Tian, Xuquan Li, Lei Chen, Sensitive areas for targeting observations associated with predictions of two types of El Nino events. COAA. Beijing, China. 07.27-30,  2016. (邀请报告)

(18) Wansuo Duan, Peng Zhao, The most disturbing tendency error of the Zebiak-Cane model associated with ENSO predictions. AOGS2016,  Beijing, China. 08.01-05, 2016. (邀请报告)

(19) 段晚锁,Target observations for two types of El Nino events and their role in reducing prediction uncertainties, 中国气象学会2016年度学术年会, 陕西西安,11,2-4,2016(邀请报告

(20) Wansuo Duan, Ben Tian, Xuquan Li, Target observation for improving initialization of two types of El Nino predictions. PAMS 2017, Jeju Island, South Korea, 4.11-13. 2017.(邀请报告)

(21) Wansuo Duan, An approach to generating mutually independent initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts: orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. International Conference on Random Dynamical Systems, Wuhan, China. 6. 24-27, 2017.(邀请报告)

(22) Wansuo Duan, Ben Tian,Target observations for improving initializations for two types of El Nino events predictions. AOGS2017, Singapore, 8.6-11, 2017.(邀请报告)

(23) 段晚锁,基于粒子滤波的目标观测新方法及其在两类El Nino可预报性研究中的应用。中国气象学会第34届年会, 河南郑州, 9,26-30, 2017。(邀请报告)

(24) Wansuo Duan, Target observations for improving initializations for two types of El Nino events predictions. BIRS workshop: Nonlinear and Stochastic Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction.  Banff, Canada, 11.19-24, 2017.(邀请报告)


国际会议/国际会议分会召集人
1. Wansuo Duan, Chun-Chieh Wu, Hyun Mee Kim, 在2009年8月AOGS2009国际会议组织可预性分会: AS05: Predictability of weatherand climate: theory and applications.
2. Wansuo Duan,F.X. Le Dmiet, Youmin Tang, Kyun mee Kim, 于2010年在印度召开的AOGS2010国际会议组织可预报性分会。AS12:Predictability of weatherand climate: theory, methodology, and applications.
3. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, 于2010年5月在Vienna召开的EGU2010国际会议组织可预报性分会:NP5.3 Nonlinear optimal mode andits applications in predictability, sensitivity, and stability.
4. Zoltan Toth, Wansuo Duan, S. Vannesti 等,于2011年4月在Vienna召开的EGU2011国际会议组织可预报性分会:NP5.3:Nonlinear instability and predictability.
5. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, S. Vannesti 在22-27 April 2012于Vienna-EGU 2012 GeneralAssembly国际会议组织可预报性分会:NP5.3:Nonlinear optimal mode andrelated predictability, sensitivity, and stability.
6. Local co-chair Wansuo Duan, Ruiqiang DingInternational Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop: Dynamics andpredictability of high-impact weather and climate events(国际会议),ICDM2012 workshop,July 6-9, Kunming, China.
7. Wansuo Duan, F. Sellevec, Peter J. Vanllevon,在August 13-17 2012 于新加坡AOGS-AGU 2012 GeneralAssembly 国际会议组织可预性分会:AS39: Predictability ofweather and climate: theory, methodology, and applications.
8. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, S. Vannesti, , 在 April, 2013于奥地利维也纳EGU 2013 General Assembly组织可预报性分会:NP5.3: Error growth dynaimics and related predictability for weather and climate.
9. Mu Mu, S. Vannesti, Wansuo Duan, 在28 April-2 May, 2014于奥地利维也纳EGU 2014 General Assembly组织可预报性分会:NP5.3: Initial error dynamics and model error physics in weather and climate predictability studies.
10. Shaocheng Xie,Wansuo Duan,Kuan-Man Xu,Masahiro Watanabe等,在28 Jul to 01 Aug, 2014于日本札幌AOGS 2014 General Assembly召集可预报性分会:AS08-13: Predictability Problems and Systematic Errors in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction: Theory, Modeling and Evaluation
11. Mu Mu, S. Vannesti, Wansuo Duan,在12 – 17 April 2015于奥地利维也纳EGU 2015 General Assembly召集可预报性分会NP5.3: Initial error dynamics and model error physics in weather and climate predictability studies
12. Wansuo Duan,Stephane Vannitsem,Tieh-Yong Koh,在2-7Aug, 2015于新加坡AOGS 2015 General Assembly召集可预报性分会:AS28:Predictability of Weather and Climate: Theory, Methodology and Applications

13. Olivier Talagrand, S. Vannesti, Wansuo Duan, etc,在17 – 22 April 2016于奥地利维也纳EGU 2015 General Assembly召集可预报性分会NP5.2: Inverse problem of data assimilation, Initial error and model error

14. Zheng Fei, Noel Keenlyside, Wansuo Duan, Stephane Vanisstem, et al., 于2016年8月1-5日在AOGS2016 召集可预报性分会:OS08-AS16: Advances In Data Assimilation And Ensemble Forecast: Applications To Studies And Predictability Of Atmosphere-ocean Variability

15. Zhang Ronghua, Wang Dongxiao, Duan Wansuo, 在2016年7月27-30日的全球华人大会大气海洋科学大会暨第七届COAA国际大气和海洋气候变化会议召集分会:Session Title: Ocean process and modelling

16. Olivier Talagrand, Stéphane Vannitsem, Wansuo Duan, Amos Lawless, Matthew Martin, Alberto Carrassi, Javier Amezcua, 在24–29 April 2017 于奥地利维也纳EGU 2017 General Assembly召集分会: NP5.1: Inverse Problems, Data Assimilation and Error Dynamics.

17. Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Stéphane Vannitsem. 在24–29 April 2017 于奥地利维也纳EGU 2017 General Assembly召集分会: NP5.2: Initial error dynamics and model error physics in predictability studies of weather and climate.

18. Wansuo Duan, Youmin Tang, Mu Mu, Zhijin Li. 在4-8 June 2017于加拿大多伦多CMOS 2017 Congress召集分会:1704061 Data Assimilation, Ensemble Prediction, and Intrinsic Predictability.

19. Craig H. Bishop, Weijia Kuang, Wansuo Duan, Andrew Moore等,在2017年8月27日-9月1日在南非开普敦IAMAS-2017会议召集分会:JA3 - Frontier Challenges In Data Assimilation And Ensemble Forecasting ForThe Atmosphere, Ocean And Solid Earth (IAGA, IAMAS, IAPSO).

20. Mu Mu, Olivier Talagrand, Youmin Tang, Wansuo Duan, Shouhong Wang, 在19-24 November 2017于加拿大班夫BIRS workshop,召集分会:Nonlinear and Stochastic Problems in Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction.

课题成员

在职职工
徐辉(助理研究员;研究方向:ENSO事件的可预报性研究),孙国栋(副研究员;研究方向:陆面过程模拟不确定性),秦晓昊(副研究员;研究方向:台风的可预报性研究),冯蓉(助理研究员;研究方向:印度洋偶极子的可预报性研究)

已毕业学生: 魏 超(硕士;国家气候中心),刘新超(硕士;四川省气象局),彭跃华(硕士;大连),张蕊(硕士;美国),张雅乐(博士;中国气象局培训中心),赵鹏(博士;中国气象局培训中心), 田 奔(博士;中国气象局国家气候中心),武于洁(博士;中国气象局国家气候中心),宋林烨(博士;北京城市研究所),陈磊(博士;上海),张璟(博士;美国NOAA),
 胡均亚(博士;中国科学院海洋研究所),封 凡(博士;成都信息工程大学),霍振华(博士;国家气象中心),黄朝铭(江西农业大学)


在读博士生:温茜茜,汪叶,齐倩倩,刘达,李绪泉, 姚佳伟, 陶灵江


在读硕士生:刘娜,李文瑶,姜琳